Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will humanity still exist in 2100??

A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 92.1% em 25 de outubro de 2026.

Quando Will humanity still exist in 2100? é resolvido?

Will humanity still exist in 2100? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2100.

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

Previsão da comunidade atual

Sim 92.1%

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 10 minutos

2/07/23, 22:54 UTC1/01/00, 05:59 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

"Humanity" means any member of the species homo sapiens, even the word comes to be used in a broader way in the future.

So a genetically modified or artificially created person would count as long as the modifications aren't so large that they make the person a completely different species, and a cyborg would also count as long as they are still biologically human.
However, an uploaded human mind would not count, nor would any other form of AI or robotics.