Se Donald Trump vencer em 2024, terá ocorrido uma guerra entre a China e os EUA até o final de seu mandato em 2025?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica dos EUAEleiçãoGeopolíticaChina2aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 94.8%
Previsores
60
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 39 minutos
10/12/23, 12:03 UTC1/02/29, 22:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
China and USA form an AI coalition by EOY 2028
Manifold MarketsWill the International Criminal Court (ICC) rule that Donald Trump is a war criminal at anytime during his current term?
Manifold MarketsIf China invades Taiwan while Donald Trump is president, will the U.S. go to war with China?
Manifold MarketsIf the US fights a major war with China, will the US win?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsConditional on the next US President being Republican, will China invade Taiwan during the next presidential term?
Manifold MarketsRegras
War as defined by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program is "A state-based conflict or dyad which reaches at least 1000 battle-related deaths in a specific calendar year"
- This will resolve YES for any war in which China and the USA are directly and kinetically involved on opposing sides.
- "Wins in 2024" refers to the 2024 presidential election.
- If Trump loses, this market will be refunded.
- Sister market:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/Symmetry/if-joe-biden-wins-in-2024-will-a-wa)
