Who will be portrayed in the first Oscar-winning movie about real-life AI released before 2034?
IAOne-OffEntretenimento7a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Sam Altman 80%Líder entre 17 opções
Previsores
15
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 6 horas
Desatualizado5/10/24, 04:15 UTC2/01/34, 07:59 UTC
Tendências
Regras
This market resolves based on the characters in the first movie to win an Oscar which depicts real-life settings and events of modern AI development.
- For each real-world person under this question, resolve YES if they, as a character (not necessarily a cameo), say more than one word during the movie, are audibly mentioned, or are visually depicted for more than 20 seconds in total.
- If no qualifying movie about AI has won an Oscar before 2033, all answers resolve NO.
- If an actor in the movie is not playing themselves, resolves YES for the character they depict rather than the actor.
- A significant portion of the movie (>30% of runtime) must be set in the 2020s decade.
- A qualifying movie does not need to be an entirely faithful depiction of historical events as long as the backdrop, setting, and characters are largely drawn from true history.
Mercados abertos
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- € 224,7 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 160,5 mil
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,3 mi
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 344,9 mil
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 mais resultados
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Who will be portrayed in the first Oscar-winning movie about real-life AI released before 2034??
- A Manifold Markets cota Sam Altman em 80% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Who will be portrayed in the first Oscar-winning movie about real-life AI released before 2034? é resolvido?
- Who will be portrayed in the first Oscar-winning movie about real-life AI released before 2034? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de janeiro de 2034.
- Como Who will be portrayed in the first Oscar-winning movie about real-life AI released before 2034? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market resolves based on the characters in the first movie to win an Oscar which depicts real-life settings and events of modern AI development.