How will presidential historians rank Biden relative to other past presidents?
PolíticaOne-OffXadrezPolítica dos EUAEleiçãoEsportes8m
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
21-25 31.9%Líder entre 10 opções
21-25 31.9%Previsores
30
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 17 horas
Desatualizado7/07/24, 17:15 UTC1/07/27, 06:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegras
Resolves according to the first C-SPAN Presidential Historian Survey where Biden is ranked (I think this will be the year after he leaves office) https://www.c-span.org/presidentsurvey2021/?page=overall
- If the Presidential Historian Survey is never released again, then resolves YES for Other and all other options resolve NO.
- The methodology in 2021 was: "a survey in which participants used a 1 ("not effective") to 10 ("very effective") scale to rate each president on 10 qualities of presidential leadership: Public Persuasion, Crisis Leadership, Economic Management, Moral Authority, International Relations, Administrative Skills, Relations with Congress, Vision/Setting an Agenda, Pursued Equal Justice for All and Performance Within the Context of the Times.
- Surveys are distributed to historians, professors and other professional observers of the presidency who are drawn from databases of C-SPAN programming, research in the field and suggestions from our academic advisers.
- Each cycle, we reach out to past participants and add new names to the list to maintain a well-rounded list of invited participants.
- This year, 142 completed the survey, up from 91 in 2017.
