Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 86.4%
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13
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado27/06/25, 18:19 UTC3/01/27, 23:59 UTC
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Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Regras
Will a federal law that preempts state-level AI regulation pass by the end of this Congress (i.e. January 3, 2027)?
- I intend to take a broad view on what "preemption" means.
- For instance:
- This question resolves YES if a law passes that penalizes states for passing or enforcing regulations on AI, even if it does not ban states from doing so.
- This question resolves YES if only some kinds of AI regulations get preempted (so long as the legislation preempts AI regulation in particular, as opposed to preempting some other class of state-level regulation that just so happens to preempt some kinds of AI regulation as well).
- For example, the Lummis bill has a narrow preemption clause that preempts enforcement of state laws against developers under certain narrow circumstances (see page 9, line 18 here).
Mercados abertos
Regulation
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
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- Volume 24h
- € 182,3 mil
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 mais resultados
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KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-14.0pt40%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-5.0pt37%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-16.0pt33%
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- Before 2028+3.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
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KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 202795%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 1,4 mi
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt20.4%
- $1.75T–$2.0T19.4%
- $1.5T–$1.75T+0.1pt18.4%
+5 mais resultados
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Federal AI preemption passes by January 3, 2027??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 86% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Federal AI preemption passes by January 3, 2027? é resolvido?
- Federal AI preemption passes by January 3, 2027? deverá ser resolvido em 3 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como Federal AI preemption passes by January 3, 2027? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Will a federal law that preempts state-level AI regulation pass by the end of this Congress (i.e. January 3, 2027)?