Elon Musk significantly backs a third party in Midterms?
One-OffPolítica dos EUAEleiçãoPolíticaTecnologiaEleições de meio de mandato dos EUA 202612d
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 23 de out. de 2026, 12:45 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualNão 99%
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Atualizado há 10 horas
Desatualizado10/06/25, 01:00 UTC5/11/26, 00:59 UTC
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KalshiRegras
[tweet]Forecasters estimated the probability that Elon Musk would significantly back a third party in the midterm elections to be 27% (range: 10% to 50%).
- This would involve committing significant sums of money (>$100M), making public endorsements comparable to those he made during the 2024 Presidential campaign, or even setting up a third party himself.
- For the purpose of this market, these are considered central examples of the kind of clear backing that would resolve this market positively.