KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatórioDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPonto médio do livro selecionado
At least 2% · —
A carregar o livro selecionado…
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Preço registado
At least 2% 96.5%Líder entre 9 opções
At least 2% 96.5%Qualidade do mercado
36 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
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Contratos em aberto
58,3 €
Contratos em aberto: baixoCompra / Venda
— / —
At least 2%Spread
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 31 minutos
28/09/26, 23:30 UTC3/01/27, 13:59 UTC
O gráfico e as variações mostram probabilidades históricas guardadas, não o livro selecionado em tempo real.
Tendências
Linha selecionada: ponto médio do livro. Outras linhas: referências guardadas, possivelmente normalizadas; as variações de 24h usam o histórico guardado.
Condições da plataforma
Fonte: Kalshi
Estas condições são informativas; as operações simuladas da CoinRithm seguem regras próprias.
- Encerramento antecipado:
- Sim
- Prazo de liquidação:
- 30m (informativo)
Profundidade de mercado · At least 2%
A carregar o livro selecionado…
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Regras
If the highest vote share received by any qualifying third-party candidate in a 2026 U.S. Senate election is at least 4.5% in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A qualifying third-party candidate is a candidate recorded by the relevant state election authority under the name of a political party other than the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, or a recognized state affiliate of either (including the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party and the North Dakota Democratic-Nonpartisan League Party). A minor party whose registered name contains the word "Independent" (for example, the Alaskan Independence Party) qualifies. Candidates recorded as Independent, Unaffiliated, Nonaffiliated, Nonpartisan, Undeclared, No Party, No Party Preference, No Party Affiliation, or under any other non-party or petition label do not qualify. A candidate who is also the Democratic or Republican nominee does not qualify. A candidate nominated only by one or more qualifying parties qualifies, and their votes across all such lines are combined. All U.S. Senate general elections held on November 3, 2026 are in scope, including special elections. Each qualifying candidate's figure is their share of all votes cast for that seat as certified by the relevant state election authority; in a ranked-choice contest, the first-round share is used. The market resolves on the single highest such certified share across all contests.
Regras de cada resultado
- At least 2%
- If the highest vote share received by any qualifying third-party candidate in a 2026 U.S. Senate election is at least 2% in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 4%
- If the highest vote share received by any qualifying third-party candidate in a 2026 U.S. Senate election is at least 4% in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 4.5%
- If the highest vote share received by any qualifying third-party candidate in a 2026 U.S. Senate election is at least 4.5% in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 5%
- If the highest vote share received by any qualifying third-party candidate in a 2026 U.S. Senate election is at least 5% in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 6%
- If the highest vote share received by any qualifying third-party candidate in a 2026 U.S. Senate election is at least 6% in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 8%
- If the highest vote share received by any qualifying third-party candidate in a 2026 U.S. Senate election is at least 8% in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 10%
- If the highest vote share received by any qualifying third-party candidate in a 2026 U.S. Senate election is at least 10% in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 12%
- If the highest vote share received by any qualifying third-party candidate in a 2026 U.S. Senate election is at least 12% in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 14%
- If the highest vote share received by any qualifying third-party candidate in a 2026 U.S. Senate election is at least 14% in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
