Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 26 de out. de 2026, 09:01 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualNão 60.1%
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72
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 3 horas
Desatualizado17/07/23, 04:23 UTC1/01/30, 15:59 UTC
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Resolves as YES if Eliezer Yudkowsky, founder of the LessWrong forum, prominent advocate of the idea that AI will cause the extinction of humanity, and perhaps the founder of a new apocalyptic religious movement (https://web.archive.org/web/20230707061904/https://a16z.com/2023/06/06/ai-will-save-the-world/) is irrelevant by 2030.
- Decision criteria: Go to Google Trends and search for 'Eliezer Yudkowsky'.
- Set the search window from 2004 to present.
- Set the area to be 'United States.' If the December 2029 trend score is less than or equal to three times the Feb 2022 trend score, then this market resolves as YES.
- If Yudkowsky has been turned into paperclips by 2030 by an AI, claim resolves as NO on grounds of his martyrdom.
- [If Google Trends ceases to exist by 2030, I will use the same algorithm on an equivalent service if it exists.
