Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 25 de out. de 2026, 19:26 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualNão 85%
Previsores
13
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 3 horas
Desatualizado20/07/26, 14:06 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, an official decree, legislative resolution, or regulatory decision is enacted by an authorized Ukrainian government body—specifically the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament), the President of Ukraine, or the Central Election Commission (CEC)—that officially schedules and sets a specific calendar date (or dates) for a nationwide presidential or parliamentary election.
- The scheduled date of the voting itself may occur in 2027 or later, provided that the formal legal act of calling/scheduling the election and assigning it a calendar date is completed and announced before January 1, 2027.
- Notes and Edge Cases:
- Postponements: If an election is officially scheduled before the deadline but is subsequently postponed, rescheduled, or canceled after December 31, 2026, this market still resolves to YES (as the act of calling the election occurred within the timeframe).
- Conditional/Vague Statements: General statements of intent, political promises, or tentative timelines (e.g., "elections will occur 90 days after a ceasefire") do not suffice to resolve YES unless a specific calendar date is officially decreed or legislated by the government.
