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  1. Mercados de Previsão
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  3. Brazil 2026 Election: Who Leads the Polling Average Two Months Before the Election? (1st Round)
Manifold Markets

Brazil 2026 Election: Who Leads the Polling Average Two Months Before the Election? (1st Round)

PolíticaOne-OffEleiçãoEsportesSoccerLatin America1m
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSem KYC
Previsão da comunidade atual
Manifold Markets
Lula 85.9%
Líder entre 4 opções
Previsores

7

Tipo de pergunta

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 5 dias

Desatualizado
26/02/26, 12:414/08/26, 23:59

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Resultado escolhido

Lula86%

Regras

At 23:59 BRT on Aug 4, 2026, take the most recently published national voting-intention polls (first-round, President) from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, Ipec, AtlasIntel, Paraná Pesquisas, PoderData, and Ipespe.

Manifold Markets
  • Only polls published within the last 15 days (i.e., Jul 20–Aug 4, 2026, inclusive) are eligible.
  • Compute each candidate’s simple average (%) across the eligible polls (using the published topline national %).
  • The market resolves to the candidate with the highest average.
  • If tied, resolve to whoever is higher in the most recent eligible poll (then the next most recent, etc.) until the tie breaks.

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Ativos nestes tópicos

BitcoinBTC$62,634.59+2.05%SolanaSOL$65.09+1.46%EthereumETH$1,649.42+1.21%DogecoinDOGE$0.0849+1.56%XRPXRP$1.12+0.17%BNBBNB$594.88+1.46%

Notícias Relacionadas

FIFA names Kraken official crypto exchange supporter for 2026 World CupCrypto NewsRussia election odds hold with United Russia leading at ~54.5%Blockchain.NewsPeru 2nd Round Bet Focus Narrows to Fujimori Narrow VictoryBlockchain.NewsSpain Dominates World Cup Knockout Trajectory, Polymarket Shows 98% OddsBlockchain.NewsBurnham Favored in Makerfield By-Election as Markets React to Rising OddsBlockchain.NewsCrypto PACs Shape Bets on Peru’s 2026 RaceBlockchain.News

Regras

At 23:59 BRT on Aug 4, 2026, take the most recently published national voting-intention polls (first-round, President) from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, Ipec, AtlasIntel, Paraná Pesquisas, PoderData, and Ipespe.

Manifold Markets
  • Only polls published within the last 15 days (i.e., Jul 20–Aug 4, 2026, inclusive) are eligible.
  • Compute each candidate’s simple average (%) across the eligible polls (using the published topline national %).
  • The market resolves to the candidate with the highest average.
  • If tied, resolve to whoever is higher in the most recent eligible poll (then the next most recent, etc.) until the tie breaks.