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Brazil 2026 Election: Who Leads the Polling Average Two Months Before the Election? (1st Round)

PolíticaOne-OffEleição Esportes Soccer Latin America7d

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibrado

Previsão da comunidade atual

Lula 96.5%+5.1pt

Líder entre 4 opções

Previsores

9

Tipo de pergunta

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 25 minutos

26/02/26, 12:414/08/26, 23:59

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Apenas fundos simulados, sem dinheiro realIsto não é aconselhamento financeiro

Resultado escolhido

Lula97%

Aposta (USDT)

Regras

At 23:59 BRT on Aug 4, 2026, take the most recently published national voting-intention polls (first-round, President) from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, Ipec, AtlasIntel, Paraná Pesquisas, PoderData, and Ipespe.

Only polls published within the last 15 days (i.e., Jul 20–Aug 4, 2026, inclusive) are eligible.
Compute each candidate’s simple average (%) across the eligible polls (using the published topline national %).
The market resolves to the candidate with the highest average.
If tied, resolve to whoever is higher in the most recent eligible poll (then the next most recent, etc.) until the tie breaks.

Tendência de volume

$50

14 de jul.3d de dados28 de jul.

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Regras

At 23:59 BRT on Aug 4, 2026, take the most recently published national voting-intention polls (first-round, President) from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, Ipec, AtlasIntel, Paraná Pesquisas, PoderData, and Ipespe.

Only polls published within the last 15 days (i.e., Jul 20–Aug 4, 2026, inclusive) are eligible.
Compute each candidate’s simple average (%) across the eligible polls (using the published topline national %).
The market resolves to the candidate with the highest average.
If tied, resolve to whoever is higher in the most recent eligible poll (then the next most recent, etc.) until the tie breaks.