Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 26 de out. de 2026, 07:45 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualNão 56%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado14/10/25, 19:35 UTC31/12/30, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegras
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that a blockchain‑ (or similar‑technology‑) based decentralized marketplace for buying and selling compute resources achieves “scaled usage” in any 30‑consecutive‑day window ending before January 1, 2031, by meeting at least 3 of the following 5 criteria:
- Money (GMV): Buyer‑to‑provider payments settled by the marketplace’s smart contracts total ≥ $25,000,000 in that 30‑day window (USD‑equivalent at time of settlement).
- Only payments tied to completed/active compute jobs count; pure token swaps, grants, staking rewards, or emissions do not count.
- Delivered compute (FLOP·s, pick one precision class): Aggregate delivered compute (summed across all jobs in the window) is ≥ 1,000 ZFLOP·s at FP16/BF16, or ≥ 2,000 ZFLOP·s at FP8.
- How to measure: For each job, use the vendor‑published peak TFLOP/s for the GPU model at the relevant precision class × job duration (seconds) × the job’s reported average utilization (if available; otherwise assume 100% only if the network provides no lower utilization metric).
- Sum across jobs.
