Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 93.8%
Previsores
18
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado7/12/25, 01:12 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
At least one fatality from nuclear weapons in 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2026? (Tests included)
Manifold MarketsWill any Nuclear weapons be used by the US till 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a canal be created in the Strait of Hormuz using nuclear weapons?
Manifold MarketsIf AI kills everyone, how will it do it?
Manifold MarketsWhat will the next world-wide crisis be?
Manifold MarketsRegras
The fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.
- Any detonation of a nuclear weapon, whether test or non-test, deliberate or inadvertent or accidental, would count towards question resolution.
- Detonation here means nuclear explosion.
- If a conventional explosion occurs but no nuclear explosion (for example, a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material with a conventional explosion), that does not count.
- If a nuclear weapon were launched but the nuclear weapon did not detonate, that would not count as detonation.
- Previous similar markets:
