Another politically motivated* assassination of a notable* English-speaking influencer within a year of Charlie Kirk's?
US PoliticsOne-OffPolítica1dManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 95.4%
Previsores
16
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 8 minutos
4/11/25, 13:59 UTC10/09/26, 12:18 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
What will happen as a result of the Charlie Kirk assassination?
Manifold MarketsWill Charlie Kirk's killer receive the death penalty?
Manifold MarketsWhat's true about Charlie Kirk's shooter
Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRegras
Will another influencer be killed in a politically motivated attack by Sept 10. 2026?
- To be considered an influencer, for the purposes of this market, they have to be primarily known as a media pundit or a social media influencer/content creator and/or their political power must primarily derive from their position as an influencer, not from an elected seat, family or an influential career in politics.
- A politically active current or former state-, or higher level politician (i.e. Trump, Obama, Newsom, AOC etc.), would be highly unlikely to qualify, even if they otherwise did fulfill all the requirements below.
- Also unlikely to qualify would be a famous person mostly known for their work portfolio outside of their social media influence (i.e. Taylor Swift, Gal Gadot etc.) even if they were politically outspoken and specifically targeted for that reason.
- To be considered a politically motivated murder, the police reports and/or the media consensus has to show that the person was murdered specifically due to their political views/influence.
- Rough figures for the influencer notability requirement:
