Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 87.5%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 19 horas
Desatualizado8/01/24, 17:57 UTC1/01/29, 05:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegras
Based on @/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-ai-be-at-least-as-big
- At or near the end of 2028, I will make a poll asking people whether they think, based on vibes, that AI was at least as big a political issue as abortion in 2028.
- Resolves YES if the majority vote Yes, and NO otherwise.
Mercados abertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
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- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
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KALSHITop AI model in September?
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- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
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KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
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- Grok-0.2pt8%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de AI bigger than abortion: What will the VIBES say??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 88% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando AI bigger than abortion: What will the VIBES say? é resolvido?
- AI bigger than abortion: What will the VIBES say? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2029.
- Como AI bigger than abortion: What will the VIBES say? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Based on @/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-ai-be-at-least-as-big