Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Sim 90.1%
Previsores
393
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 23 minutos
27/03/23, 05:41 UTC28/03/28, 04:59 UTC
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Resolves YES, if 5 years from now, in hindsight, the consensus seems to be that the release of ChatGPT was as significant an event in signalling a coming sea change in technology and society as the release of the original iPhone.
- This will be greatly aided in resolution if there's a bunch of press articles saying as much, otherwise it will be based on my own subjective opinion, aided by whatever polls I can look at and whatever evidence is provided in the comments.
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- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de 5 years from now, will ChatGPT be seen as an "iPhone moment?"?
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 90% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando 5 years from now, will ChatGPT be seen as an "iPhone moment?" é resolvido?
- 5 years from now, will ChatGPT be seen as an "iPhone moment?" deverá ser resolvido em 28 de março de 2028.
- Como 5 years from now, will ChatGPT be seen as an "iPhone moment?" é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves YES, if 5 years from now, in hindsight, the consensus seems to be that the release of ChatGPT was as significant an event in signalling a coming sea change in technology and society as the release of the original iPhone.