KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatórioDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
Before Jan 1, 2027 56%Líder entre 3 opções
Qualidade do mercado
67 / 100
Qualidade médiaVolume 24h
10,4 mil €
Liquidez
6,8 mil €
Liquidez médiaSpread
1.0 pt
Spread apertadoDados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 minutos
22/09/26, 20:00 UTC1/10/26, 03:59 UTC
Tendências
Condições da plataforma
Fonte: Kalshi
Estas condições são informativas; as operações simuladas da CoinRithm seguem regras próprias.
- Encerramento antecipado:
- Sim
- Prazo de liquidação:
- 30m (informativo)
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If the governments of the United States and China have formally announced an agreement to establish, or have implemented, a bilateral notification mechanism for AI incidents that could affect national security after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida via:The Washington PostFox NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe GuardianABCBloomberg NewsCBSSouth China Morning PostNBCthe Associated PressBBCAxiosCNNABC News AustraliaThe InformationSemaforMSNBCCBCReutersPoliticoThe New York Times
- Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market.
- Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify, unless the new article itself explicitly reaffirms the truth of the topic as of the publication date.
- Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
- A qualifying mechanism must be a government-to-government arrangement for notifying the other government about relevant AI incidents; general AI dialogue, shared principles, safety cooperation, or a general hotline without the incident-notification function does not satisfy this topic.
- The mechanism must be expressly described in an official government announcement, agreement text, or qualifying Source Agency report as covering AI incidents with national-security implications.
Mercados abertos
ChinaPOLYMARKETWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- September 30+0.4pt100%
- October 31+0.1pt100%
- September 24+0.3pt100%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,8 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 280,2 mil
KALSHIWhat will Trump say during his remarks at Xi Jinping’s state arrival?
- China (5+ times)-19.0pt56%
- Peace47%
- Melania+12.0pt39%
+24 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 103,8 mil
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- € 12,2 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 56 mil
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- Alibaba+1.0pt91.9%
- Moonshot-0.8pt5%
- Z.ai1%
+8 mais resultados
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- € 37,4 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 31,2 mil
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 24?
- 23°C+35.5pt55.2%
- 24°C-0.5pt20%
- 25°C-11.0pt12.4%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the U.S. and China agree to establish an AI hotline??
- A Kalshi cota Before Jan 1, 2027 em 56% em 23 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will the U.S. and China agree to establish an AI hotline? é resolvido?
- Will the U.S. and China agree to establish an AI hotline? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de outubro de 2026.
- Como Will the U.S. and China agree to establish an AI hotline? é liquidado?
- A Kalshi liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: If the governments of the United States and China have formally announced an agreement to establish, or have implemented, a bilateral notification mechanism for AI incidents that could affect national security after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.