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  1. Mercados de Previsão
  2. US Politics
  3. Will Trump recognize Somaliland?
Will Trump recognize Somaliland?

Will Trump recognize Somaliland?

7.0% (24h)One-OffUS PoliticsGeopolítica6m
KalshiKalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxa
Probabilidade implícita atual
Before 2027
Before 2027 16%-7.0%
Qualidade do mercado

28 / 100

Baixa qualidade
Volume 24h

0,3 €

Liquidez

72,6 €

Baixa liquidez
Compra / Venda

16.0% / 21.0%

Spread

31.3%

Spread amplo
Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 8 minutos

14/01/26, 22:001/01/27, 15:00

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Resultado escolhido

Before 202716%

Regras

If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes Somaliland as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • This could include: opening a U.S. embassy with Somaliland, accepting an ambassador from Somaliland, including the entity as an independent country in U.S.
  • Department of State country lists, or signing a formal treaty, bilateral agreement, or communique that explicitly identifies Somaliland as an independent and sovereign state.
  • Merely acknowledging a governing authority exists, without recognizing its authority, is insufficient to resolve the market to Yes.
  • Establishing a consulate or liaison office without the formal status and language of recognition does not qualify.
  • Trade offices, cultural centers, or other non-embassy missions are insufficient.

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Notícias Relacionadas

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Regras

If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes Somaliland as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • This could include: opening a U.S. embassy with Somaliland, accepting an ambassador from Somaliland, including the entity as an independent country in U.S.
  • Department of State country lists, or signing a formal treaty, bilateral agreement, or communique that explicitly identifies Somaliland as an independent and sovereign state.
  • Merely acknowledging a governing authority exists, without recognizing its authority, is insufficient to resolve the market to Yes.
  • Establishing a consulate or liaison office without the formal status and language of recognition does not qualify.
  • Trade offices, cultural centers, or other non-embassy missions are insufficient.