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  3. Los Angeles mayoral election first round: margin of victory
Los Angeles mayoral election first round: margin of victory

Los Angeles mayoral election first round: margin of victory

3.0% (24h)One-OffPolíticaEleiçãoUS Politics10m
KalshiKalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxa
Probabilidade implícita atual
Karen Bass, 4-8%
Karen Bass, 4-8% 99%+3.0%
Líder entre 13 opções
Qualidade do mercado

79 / 100

Alta qualidade
Volume 24h

889,4 €

Liquidez

2,5 mil €

Liquidez média
Compra / Venda

99.0% / 100.0%

Spread

1.0%

Spread apertado
Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 8 minutos

27/04/26, 19:0028/04/27, 14:00

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Resultado escolhido

Karen Bass, 4-8%99%

Regras

If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election falls within 0% to 4%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
  • For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Karen Bass minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Karen Bass loses.
  • For raw votes: the total votes received by Karen Bass minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Karen Bass loses.
  • For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Karen Bass minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Karen Bass wins, or the electoral votes received by Karen Bass minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Karen Bass does not.
  • Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.

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Regras

If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election falls within 0% to 4%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
  • For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Karen Bass minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Karen Bass loses.
  • For raw votes: the total votes received by Karen Bass minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Karen Bass loses.
  • For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Karen Bass minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Karen Bass wins, or the electoral votes received by Karen Bass minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Karen Bass does not.
  • Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.