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  3. Which cities will the National Guard deploy to in 2026?
Which cities will the National Guard deploy to in 2026?

Which cities will the National Guard deploy to in 2026?

1.0% (24h)YearlyPolíticaUS PoliticsGeopolítica6m
KalshiKalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxa
Probabilidade implícita atual
Portland
Portland 24%+1.0%
Líder entre 6 opções
Qualidade do mercado

28 / 100

Baixa qualidade
Volume 24h

0,2 €

Liquidez

45,5 €

Baixa liquidez
Compra / Venda

17.0% / 25.0%

Spread

47.1%

Spread amplo
Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 1 minuto

23/12/25, 15:001/01/27, 15:00

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
0%

Resultado escolhido

Portland24%

Regras

If the National Guard is deployed to Chicago after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Deployment means National Guard members arrive in Chicago on official deployment orders, under State Active Duty (SAD), Title 32, or Title 10 activation, for operational missions (not routine training), with actual presence in Chicago, not merely assigned or in transit.
  • The following constitutes deployment and resolves **YES**:
  • - Governor activates Guard with deployment to Chicago - Guard units arrive in Chicago on emergency orders - Federal activation placing Guard in Chicago - Inter-state Emergency Management Assistance Compact (EMAC) deployment to Chicago - Pre-positioned Guard units activated for operations in Chicago - Any number of Guard members (even one) officially deployed
  • The following does NOT constitute deployment and resolves **NO**:
  • - Deployment announcements without actual arrival - Guard placed on standby/alert status only - Units staged outside Chicago without entering - Training exercises or routine drills - Guard members traveling through Chicago to another destination - Planning/assessment teams without follow-on deployment - Off-duty Guard members acting as civilians - Guard at permanent facilities (armories) not on deployment orders - Recruitment or community relations activities - Canceled deployments that never materialize

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Regras

If the National Guard is deployed to Chicago after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Deployment means National Guard members arrive in Chicago on official deployment orders, under State Active Duty (SAD), Title 32, or Title 10 activation, for operational missions (not routine training), with actual presence in Chicago, not merely assigned or in transit.
  • The following constitutes deployment and resolves **YES**:
  • - Governor activates Guard with deployment to Chicago - Guard units arrive in Chicago on emergency orders - Federal activation placing Guard in Chicago - Inter-state Emergency Management Assistance Compact (EMAC) deployment to Chicago - Pre-positioned Guard units activated for operations in Chicago - Any number of Guard members (even one) officially deployed
  • The following does NOT constitute deployment and resolves **NO**:
  • - Deployment announcements without actual arrival - Guard placed on standby/alert status only - Units staged outside Chicago without entering - Training exercises or routine drills - Guard members traveling through Chicago to another destination - Planning/assessment teams without follow-on deployment - Off-duty Guard members acting as civilians - Guard at permanent facilities (armories) not on deployment orders - Recruitment or community relations activities - Canceled deployments that never materialize