KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatórioDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPonto médio do livro selecionado
9 or more · —
A carregar o livro selecionado…
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Preço registado
9 or more 96.5%Líder entre 10 opções
9 or more 96.5%Qualidade do mercado
36 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
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Contratos em aberto
154,7 US$
Contratos em aberto: baixoCompra / Venda
— / —
9 or moreSpread
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 41 minutos
1/10/26, 18:00 UTC31/12/26, 15:00 UTC
O gráfico e as variações mostram probabilidades históricas guardadas, não o livro selecionado em tempo real.
Tendências
Linha selecionada: ponto médio do livro. Outras linhas: referências guardadas, possivelmente normalizadas; as variações de 24h usam o histórico guardado.
Condições da plataforma
Fonte: Kalshi
Estas condições são informativas; as operações simuladas da CoinRithm seguem regras próprias.
- Encerramento antecipado:
- Sim
- Prazo de liquidação:
- 30m (informativo)
Profundidade de mercado · 9 or more
A carregar o livro selecionado…
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Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
How many Governors will lose reelection in 2026?
KalshiHow many Republican senators will lose reelection in 2026?
KalshiHow many Democratic Senators will lose reelection in 2026?
KalshiWill the MAGA ‘Moderates’ all lose reelection?
Manifold MarketsHow many House Republicans will lose reelection in 2026?
KalshiWill Democrats lose the house in the 2026 midterm elections?
Manifold MarketsRegras
If at least 13 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida via:the Associated PressNew York TimesBloomberg NewsCNNNBCABCCBSFox NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe Washington PostPoliticoBallotpediaofficial state or local election division websitesthe Clerk of the House of RepresentativesClerk of the U.S. House of RepresentativesReutersthe Secretary of the SenateThe Cook Political ReportSabato's Crystal Ball
- Members count as losing re-election if they actively seek re-election (by filing candidacy or appearing on ballot) but fail to win. This includes losses in primaries, general elections, runoffs, retention elections, or recalls. Members who retire, withdraw before primaries, die, resign, or are disqualified do not count as losses. If redistricting forces two group members against each other, the loser counts. Members who switch parties after issuance remain part of the original group. If a member loses their party primary but wins as an independent, they did not lose re-election. Losses in 2026 House primaries and runoffs held before this market opened count, including for members who later leave office. Members who ran for a different office, such as the Senate, are not counted. Party is as listed by the Clerk of the House when this market opened. Non-voting delegates and the Resident Commissioner are not counted.
Regras de cada resultado
- 9 or more
- If at least 9 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 10 or more
- If at least 10 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 11 or more
- If at least 11 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 12 or more
- If at least 12 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 13 or more
- If at least 13 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 14 or more
- If at least 14 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 15 or more
- If at least 15 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 16 or more
- If at least 16 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 17 or more
- If at least 17 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 18 or more
- If at least 18 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
