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  1. Mercados de Previsão
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  3. Illinois pension debt in 2026?
Illinois pension debt in 2026?

Illinois pension debt in 2026?

YearlyPolíticaUS PoliticsBusiness & Corporate4m
KalshiKalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxa
Probabilidade implícita atual
Above $140 billion
Above $140 billion 93%
Líder entre 7 opções
Qualidade do mercado

40 / 100

Baixa qualidade
Volume 24h

0 €

Liquidez

33,7 €

Baixa liquidez
Compra / Venda

93.0% / 98.0%

Spread

5.4%

Spread moderado
Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 8 minutos

13/05/26, 17:001/11/26, 13:29

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Resultado escolhido

Above $140 billion93%

Regras

If the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 is above $140 billion, as reported by the Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The Underlying is the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026, as reported in the Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability’s November Special Pension Briefing.
  • The five State-funded retirement systems are the Teachers’ Retirement System, State Universities Retirement System, State Employees’ Retirement System, Judges’ Retirement System, and General Assembly Retirement System.
  • Use the value reported for total unfunded liabilities, or an equivalent combined unfunded actuarial liability figure, for all five systems together.
  • The value should be based on the actuarial value of assets / smoothed value of assets, not the market value of assets, unless CGFA does not report an actuarial/smoothed-value figure for FY2026.
  • If the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 is above $145 billion, as reported by the Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Regras

If the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 is above $140 billion, as reported by the Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The Underlying is the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026, as reported in the Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability’s November Special Pension Briefing.
  • The five State-funded retirement systems are the Teachers’ Retirement System, State Universities Retirement System, State Employees’ Retirement System, Judges’ Retirement System, and General Assembly Retirement System.
  • Use the value reported for total unfunded liabilities, or an equivalent combined unfunded actuarial liability figure, for all five systems together.
  • The value should be based on the actuarial value of assets / smoothed value of assets, not the market value of assets, unless CGFA does not report an actuarial/smoothed-value figure for FY2026.
  • If the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 is above $145 billion, as reported by the Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, then the market resolves to Yes.