KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
Sim 75%
Qualidade do mercado
41 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
—
Liquidez
1,4 mil €
Baixa liquidezCompra / Venda
70.0% / 78.0%
Spread
8.0 pt
Spread amploDados do mercado
Atualizado há 7 minutos
4/09/26, 16:00 UTC20/10/26, 03:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
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Manifold MarketsRegras
If the taking effect of CMS-2451-F in at least one U.S. jurisdiction on October 13, 2026 is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Oct 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida via:The New York TimesAPBloombergReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCNBC
- This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency.
- News confirmation is defined as a published article, broadcast segment, or official news report by a Source Agency, that A) explicitly states the taking effect of CMS-2451-F in at least one U.S. jurisdiction on October 13, 2026 occurred, is true, or has been verified, B) based on journalistic investigation, sources, or evidence, and C) presented as factual reporting rather than speculation, rumor, or unverified allegation.
- For this market, taking effect means CMS-2451-F operates in at least one U.S. jurisdiction on Oct. 13.
- Announcement, publication, or scheduling alone does not qualify.
- Nationwide relief preventing operation anywhere in the United States that day means No; limited relief does not if the rule operates elsewhere.
Mercados abertos
Health & Medicine
POLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Volume total
- € 15,6 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 18,3 mil
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume total
- € 1,6 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 5,2 mil
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 mais resultados
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+6.0pt65%
- September+2.0pt41%
- June28%
- Volume total
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Volume total
- € 916 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 1,5 mil
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000-2.0pt57%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 863,6 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 1 mil
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will HHS's youth gender-care policy take effect Oct. 13??
- A Kalshi cota Yes em 75% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will HHS's youth gender-care policy take effect Oct. 13? é resolvido?
- Will HHS's youth gender-care policy take effect Oct. 13? deverá ser resolvido em 20 de outubro de 2026.
- Como Will HHS's youth gender-care policy take effect Oct. 13? é liquidado?
- A Kalshi liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: If the taking effect of CMS-2451-F in at least one U.S. jurisdiction on October 13, 2026 is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Oct 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.