KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
Before Oct 1, 2027 71%-15.0ptLíder entre 5 opções
Qualidade do mercado
33 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
158,7 €
Liquidez
179,2 €
Baixa liquidezSpread
8.0 pt
Spread amploDados do mercado
Atualizado há 12 minutos
19/08/26, 22:001/10/27, 3:59
Tendências
0%
0%
0%
0%
Regras
If the FDA approves intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma for marketing the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Food and Drug Administration
- An approval is defined as:
- For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
- The following constitute approvals that trigger the Payout Criterion:
- Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit) Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints) Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
- The following do NOT constitute approvals:
Mercados abertos
Health & Medicine
POLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.3pt96%
- Yes+0.3pt4%
- Volume total
- € 15,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 14,5 mil
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300098%
- Above 4000+2.0pt87%
- Above 6000+4.0pt30%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 807,4 mil
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+1.0pt69%
- June 30,-9.0pt12%
- Volume total
- € 40,9 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 1,9 mil
POLYMARKETHow many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
- Fewer than 20+14.0pt39.3%
- 20 to 34+17.0pt37.4%
- 35 to 49-12.0pt14.9%
KALSHIWhich countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- South Sudan56%
- Burundi35%
- Rwanda30%
+13 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 293 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 1,2 mil
POLYMARKETMeasles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- ↑500+0.1pt100%
- ↑1k+0.1pt100%
- ↑2k+0.2pt100%
+9 mais resultados
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- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
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- Heidi Overton confirmed as FDA Commissioner by which date?
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
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- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- FDA moves BPC-157 to Category 1 by which date?
- Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157)??
- A Kalshi cota Before Oct 1, 2027 em 71% em 24 de agosto de 2026.
- Quando Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157)? é resolvido?
- Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157)? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de outubro de 2027.
- Como Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157)? é liquidado?
- A Kalshi liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: If the FDA approves intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma for marketing the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.