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  1. Mercados de Previsão
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  3. When will El Niño conditions be declared present?
When will El Niño conditions be declared present?

When will El Niño conditions be declared present?

7.0% (24h)One-OffCiênciaWeather1m
KalshiKalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxa
Probabilidade implícita atual
Before Jul 1, 2026
Before Jul 1, 2026 70%+7.0%
Líder entre 5 opções
Qualidade do mercado

28 / 100

Baixa qualidade
Volume 24h

1,2 €

Liquidez

46,8 €

Baixa liquidez
Compra / Venda

64.0% / 71.0%

Spread

10.9%

Spread amplo
Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 6 minutos

2/06/26, 14:0014/07/26, 3:59

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Resultado escolhido

Before Jul 1, 202670%

Regras

If the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center declares in an ENSO Diagnostic Discussion that El Niño conditions are present after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • If the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center declares in an ENSO Diagnostic Discussion that El Niño conditions are present after Issuance and before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center declares in an ENSO Diagnostic Discussion that El Niño conditions are present after Issuance and before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center declares in an ENSO Diagnostic Discussion that El Niño conditions are present after Issuance and before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center declares in an ENSO Diagnostic Discussion that El Niño conditions are present after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Ativos nestes tópicos

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Regras

If the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center declares in an ENSO Diagnostic Discussion that El Niño conditions are present after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • If the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center declares in an ENSO Diagnostic Discussion that El Niño conditions are present after Issuance and before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center declares in an ENSO Diagnostic Discussion that El Niño conditions are present after Issuance and before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center declares in an ENSO Diagnostic Discussion that El Niño conditions are present after Issuance and before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center declares in an ENSO Diagnostic Discussion that El Niño conditions are present after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.