Probabilidade implícita atual
Não 80%
Não 80%Qualidade do mercado
33 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
—
Liquidez
1 mil €
Baixa liquidezTraders
2
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0
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 2 minutos
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PolymarketRegras
If, between January 1, 2026 00:00:00 UTC and December 31, 2026 22:59:59 UTC, an EU Regulation or EU Directive is formally adopted that (i) requires at least one social media platform or AI chatbot to use mandatory age verification for EU users, or (ii) in the case of a Directive, requires Member States to ensure such an obligation is imposed on those services, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- The Primary Designated Source is the Official Journal of the European Union (eur-lex.europa.eu), supported by the European Commission's press releases. "Adopted" means the legal act has completed the EU legislative process (i.e., signed and published in the Official Journal); proposals, Council positions, or Parliament-only readings do not count.
- National-level laws by individual Member States (e.g., France, Germany), Council Recommendations without binding effect, and non-EU bodies (e.g., UK Online Safety Act) do not count.
- Voluntary industry codes adopted under existing EU frameworks (such as the DSA) that do not introduce new mandatory age verification do not count.
- A consensus of credible reporting (e. g.