Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 90%
Voorspellers
19
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 1 uur geleden
Vertraagd24 mrt 25, 15:41 UTC24 mrt 35, 15:34 UTC
Trends
Macrogevoelige Assets
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 10% as measured from a prior peak?
Manifold MarketsWill there be at least one year by 2030 (incl.) in which real US GDP grows by >=10% as measured from a prior peak?
Manifold MarketsWill there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak?
Manifold MarketsWill there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 6% as measured from a prior peak?
Manifold Markets2026 World GDP Growth
PolymarketCPI YoY in November
KalshiRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to "Yes" if the world GDP grows by an order of magnitude (10x increase) within a 10-year period from market creation.
- It will resolve to "No" if:
- There is insufficient growth for the world GDP to have at least doubled by the end of the 10-year period, OR
- At the end of the 10-year period, the world GDP has not increased by a factor of 10 from its starting value.
- An order of magnitude increase means the world GDP would need to grow by a factor of 10 (1000%).