Will US unemployment exceed 4.5% at any point in 2026?
One-OffEconomieTrade PolicyMacro & Economy3mndManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 79.8%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 6 uur geleden
Verouderd10 feb 26, 18:37 UTC1 jan 27, 00:00 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will US unemployment exceed 5% in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsHow high will US unemployment go in 2026?
PolymarketWill US unemployment get above 6% in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.2% in December 2026?
ForecastExWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.7% in December 2026?
ForecastExRegels
Resolves YES if BLS reports US unemployment rate above 4.5% for any month in 2026.
- Current rate ~4.0%.
- Key risk factors: tariff-driven disruption, federal workforce reductions.
Open markten
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 89,9 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1,7 mln.
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 541,2K
- 24u volume
- € 30,7K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 334,2K
- 24u volume
- € 12,8K
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 10,7K
- 24u volume
- € 10,7K
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Totaal volume
- € 612,5K
- 24u volume
- € 6,9K
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Totaal volume
- € 2,9 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 5,3K
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will US unemployment exceed 4.5% at any point in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 80% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will US unemployment exceed 4.5% at any point in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Will US unemployment exceed 4.5% at any point in 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will US unemployment exceed 4.5% at any point in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolves YES if BLS reports US unemployment rate above 4.5% for any month in 2026.