Will Ukrainian drones hit Kaliningrad before the war is over?
GeopolitiekOne-OffRusland / OekraïneEuropa2mnd
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 53.1%
Voorspellers
21
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 21 uur geleden
Verouderd2 aug 26, 16:02 UTC1 jan 27, 03:59 UTC
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Will Ukrainian drones hit Kaliningrad before the war is over?
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PolymarketRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if at least one Ukrainian drone—including uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) or uncrewed surface vessels (USVs)—impacts, crashes, or explodes on the land territory or within the territorial waters of the Kaliningrad Oblast before the active armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine ends.
- This includes drones that are intercepted or shot down by Russian air defenses but whose debris subsequently crashes on Kaliningrad territory.
- "Before the war is over" is defined as prior to the official implementation of a mutually recognized ceasefire, the signing of a bilateral peace treaty, or the formal conclusion of the active military conflict between Russia and Ukraine as widely reported by credible international consensus.
- If the war concludes without any Ukrainian drone making physical contact with Kaliningrad territory, this market resolves to NO.
- Preemptive measures, such as the declaration of "drone threats," airspace closures, or GPS spoofing, do not qualify as a "hit" unless physical impact or debris contact on Kaliningrad territory is confirmed.