Will there be sustained armed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea by end of December 31, 2026?
GeopolitiekOne-OffMidden-Oosten2mndManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 70.2%
Voorspellers
9
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 3 uur geleden
Verouderd19 apr 26, 08:53 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketRegels
Will a major new armed conflict break out in the Horn of Africa — involving any combination of Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, or Somalia — before January 1, 2028?”
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if there is a sustained armed conflict between the national armed forces of Ethiopia and Eritrea at any point between the market's creation and 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026.
- Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
- "Sustained armed conflict" is defined as an ongoing engagement involving significant, coordinated military operations between the state forces of Ethiopia and Eritrea, lasting for at least seven consecutive days or involving more than 100 combat-related fatalities.
- Resolution will be based on credible, consensus reporting from major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC) and official statements from international monitoring bodies (e.g., the United Nations or African Union).