Will the US enter a depression if the Republicans win the midterms?
EconomieOne-OffPolitiekAmerikaanse politiekVerkiezing2j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 15 okt 2026, 18:01 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 33 minuten geleden
13 okt 26, 04:48 UTC31 dec 28, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiHow many Senate seats will Republicans win in the Midterms?
KalshiIf Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US enter a recession in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegels
Depression defined as
- a 10% decrease in GDP, OR
- an economic contraction lasting 3 or more years, OR
- unemployment rates >20%, OR
- 2 years of deflation due to decreased demand (must be combined with other spikes, e.g. high unemployment >10% but not reaching 20%, or significant underemployment where everyone is driving Uber or other gigwork, and/or a significant decrease in GDP >5% but that does not quite reach 10%), OR
- Widespread banking collapse, debt defaults, lots of lost money, (must be combined with other spikes, see previous point)