Will the Russian Federation invade a NATO country before 2028?
GeopolitiekOne-OffRusland / OekraïneEuropa1j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 80.7%
Voorspellers
42
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 14 uur geleden
Verouderd16 jan 24, 13:30 UTC2 jan 28, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Regels
This market resolves YES if at any time before 2028, Russian military forces invade a country with NATO membership.
- Otherwise, it resolves NO.
- I do not think these words necessitate hair-splitting, as I am setting up this market in good faith and trust that people in the near future are still able to negotiate the proper meanings of e.g. 'military forces' and 'invasion' in this particular context.
- But I am happy to clarify any edge cases that people can come up with.
- If so, I will update the description accordingly.
- Some points:
