Will the Russian Federation invade a NATO country before 2028?
GeopolitiekOne-OffRussia / UkraineEurope1j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Nee 80.7%
Voorspellers
42
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 12 uur geleden
Verouderd16 jan 24, 13:30 UTC2 jan 28, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Ukraine invade any additional "minor constituent" (check description) of the Russian Federation before 2030-1-1?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia invade any NATO country before 31 December 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia invade a NATO country before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
PolymarketEU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by which date?
PolymarketUS recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?
PolymarketRegels
This market resolves YES if at any time before 2028, Russian military forces invade a country with NATO membership.
- Otherwise, it resolves NO.
- I do not think these words necessitate hair-splitting, as I am setting up this market in good faith and trust that people in the near future are still able to negotiate the proper meanings of e.g. 'military forces' and 'invasion' in this particular context.
- But I am happy to clarify any edge cases that people can come up with.
- If so, I will update the description accordingly.
- Some points:
Open markten
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- December 31+4.0pt33%
- October 31+4.0pt21%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 6,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 344K
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No+1.0pt84.2%
- Yes-1.0pt15.8%
- Totaal volume
- € 59,1 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 244,2K
POLYMARKETTrump x Greenland deal signed by which date?
- December 31+1.9pt100%
- September 25+5.3pt99%
- September 23+10.2pt97%
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+2.4pt64%
- October 31+0.5pt38%
- September 30-0.5pt10%
+17 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- September 25+3.9pt96%
- September 30+6.0pt90%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 153,1K
KALSHIUS-Iran nuclear deal?
- Before Jan 20, 202936%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-3.0pt28%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+4.0pt12%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 7,5 mln.
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will the Russian Federation invade a NATO country before 2028??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 80.7% per 21 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will the Russian Federation invade a NATO country before 2028? afgewikkeld?
- Will the Russian Federation invade a NATO country before 2028? wordt naar verwachting op 2 januari 2028 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will the Russian Federation invade a NATO country before 2028? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This market resolves YES if at any time before 2028, Russian military forces invade a country with NATO membership.