Will the percentage of U.S. adults identifying as Christian in the U.S. drop below 60% by the end of 2026?
One-OffReligieSamenleving en cultuurAmerikaanse politiek2mndManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 80.7%
Voorspellers
55
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 19 uur geleden
Verouderd13 apr 24, 20:53 UTC1 jan 27, 10:59 UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRegels
In 2020, 64% of Americans identified as Christian, according to Pew Research Center.
- This marked a continuation of a long-term decline in Christian affiliation in the U.S. This market asks traders to predict whether this downward trend will persist, specifically if the percentage of Americans identifying as Christian will fall below 60% by the end of 2026.
- Resolution Details: The resolution will be based on the latest available data from reputable sources such as Pew Research Center or other credible surveys that are published by the end of 2026.
- The market resolves as "Yes" if the percentage is reported to be below 60%, and "No" if it is 60% or above.
- If no new survey data are available by the deadline, the market will resolve as invalid.
- This market design gives a clear and direct question that can be objectively verified with upcoming survey data, making it straightforward for traders to research and forecast based on trends and changing demographics in U.S. religious affiliation.
