Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 26 okt 2026, 07:45 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 76.5%
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49
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binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 2 uur geleden
Verouderd13 dec 22, 02:29 UTC1 jan 28, 05:00 UTC
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KalshiRegels
In a discussion with a friend about whether everyone has a gender identity, I mentioned that it wouldn't bother me if people referred to me as a woman.
- They expressed some skepticism of this; their belief was that everyone has a gender identity, but for people whose identity matches their current body and social role, they don't notice any discomfort or feeling of "wrongness", so they don't end up having any subjective experience of having a gender identity.
- The condition is met if I ask my aquaintances to refer to me with she/her pronouns, and then I'll resolve to YES or NO depending on whether I feel like those pronouns make me uncomfortable in some fundamental way.
- If I haven't done this by the end of 2024, I'll resolve this to N/A, unless I still feel like I might do it soon, in which case I'll extend the deadline a bit.
- For reference:
- I've identified and mostly been treated as a man for my whole life, which hasn't bothered me.