Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 86%
Voorspellers
9
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 45 minuten geleden
Vertraagd2 jul 26, 00:12 UTC4 dec 26, 13:25 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?
KalshiMexico unemployment rate in August
KalshiSeptember Unemployment Rate
PolymarketAustralia unemployment rate in August
KalshiUnemployment rate for new college grads increases in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich EU country will have the highest unemployment rate?
Manifold MarketsRegels
This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Employment Situation release for November 2026 reports an official U-3 unemployment rate of at least 4.5 percent, seasonally adjusted.
- Use the household-survey U-3 unemployment rate for November 2026 from the first BLS Employment Situation release.
- A value of 4.5% or higher resolves YES.
- A value of 4.4% or lower resolves NO.
- Do not use total nonfarm payroll employment, household employment level, labor-force participation, U-6, metro-area or state unemployment rates, demographic subseries, non-seasonally-adjusted values, forecast consensus, any-2026-month markets, or later revisions unless BLS corrects the initial November 2026 release before resolution.
- If the November 2026 Employment Situation release is delayed, wait for the first BLS release containing the November 2026 U-3 unemployment rate unless there is no such release by December 11, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": "The latest checked BLS Employment Situation context reported a May 2026 U-3 unemployment rate of 4.3 percent and a 4.3-4.5 percent range since July 2025.", "metric": "U-3 official unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, household survey", "related_non_duplicates": ["November 2026 nonfarm-payroll-change markets use CES payrolls, not U-3 unemployment.", "Other months, U-6, labor-force participation, claims, ADP, JOLTS, state, metro, and demographic markets are not exact duplicates.", "Any-2026-month unemployment markets are not exact duplicates of the November reference-month threshold."], "release_schedule": "BLS schedules the November 2026 Employment Situation release for 2026-12-04 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BLS Employment Situation release for November 2026", "source_fetch_caveat": "BLS schedule pages may return HTTP 403 to raw Python urllib from this host; recheck the official BLS schedule/source pages before live creation.", "threshold": "4.5 percent or higher"}.
Vergelijking van voorspellingsbronnen
- Ook beschikbaar op Kalshi — Unemployment rate in Nov 2026? · Exactly 4.2% 77%
Open markten
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 91 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1,7 mln.
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 569,7K
- 24u volume
- € 47,4K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 359,2K
- 24u volume
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt94%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-6.0pt90%
- Above -4.5% of GDP80%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 16,4K
KALSHIGermany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.0% of GDP-1.0pt96%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-8.0pt86%
- Above -4.0% of GDP+1.0pt51%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No78%
- Yes-3.0pt22%
- Totaal volume
- € 314,7K
- 24u volume
- € 9,5K
- CPI core in August
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- US recession by end of 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Recession this year?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will the November 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 86% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will the November 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%? afgewikkeld?
- Will the November 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%? wordt naar verwachting op 4 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will the November 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Employment Situation release for November 2026 reports an official U-3 unemployment rate of at least 4.5 percent, seasonally adjusted.
- Waar wordt Will the November 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%? nog meer aangeboden?
- Dezelfde vraag wordt ook aangeboden op Kalshi.