Will the full AD/CVD case on Russian palladium result in a duty order by Oct 31, 2026?
Russia / UkraineOne-OffTrade PolicyAI1mndManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 95.8%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 20 uur geleden
Verouderd16 feb 26, 17:57 UTC31 okt 26, 17:57 UTC
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Will an AD duty order on unwrought palladium from Russia be issued by Oct 31, 2026?
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PolymarketRegels
Resolution criteria: Resolve YES if an antidumping duty order on unwrought palladium from Russia (case A-821-840, HTS 7110.21.0000) is published in the Federal Register by October 31, 2026.
- This requires both Commerce final affirmative determination AND USITC final affirmative injury determination.
- Timeline & Probabilities:
- 📅 Feb 10, 2026: Prelim AD announced • Russia-wide margin: 132.83%
- 📅 By Mar 1, 2026: Federal Register publication (85% probability) • Legal trigger for statutory deadlines and cash deposits
- 📅 By Jun 30, 2026: Commerce final affirmative AD determination (75%) • Expected ~Apr 28, 2026 unless extended • Final rate uncertain (separate market for rate prediction) • Prelim reference point: 132.83%
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will the full AD/CVD case on Russian palladium result in a duty order by Oct 31, 2026??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 96% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will the full AD/CVD case on Russian palladium result in a duty order by Oct 31, 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Will the full AD/CVD case on Russian palladium result in a duty order by Oct 31, 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 31 oktober 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will the full AD/CVD case on Russian palladium result in a duty order by Oct 31, 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolution criteria: Resolve YES if an antidumping duty order on unwrought palladium from Russia (case A-821-840, HTS 7110.21.0000) is published in the Federal Register by October 31, 2026.