Will Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030?
One-OffCrime & Justice3j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Nee 94.7%
Voorspellers
13
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 6 uur geleden
Verouderd21 nov 22, 15:40 UTC1 jan 30, 05:00 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Scott Alexander (psychiatrist and writer) be arrested before 2030?
Manifold MarketsAt the beginning of 2030, what percentage of Manifold users will have a strongly negative opinion of Scott Alexander?
Manifold MarketsWill Scott Alexander be the subject of a public scandal within his social circle before 2030?
Manifold MarketsRegels
It doesn't need to be a formal charge of a crime, it could also be something like a sexual assault allegation.
- The allegation must be specific, like "I was attacked on [date] at [place]", it can't be "I heard a rumor that Scott once did something that made someone uncomfortable".
- And the alleged behavior must actually be a felony if it were to be proven in court, it can't just be "a bad thing".
- I'll be broad with what counts as a "mainstream news outlet", it just can't be "a blog post from someone with 18 readers", or infowars.
- This is part of a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best.
- For an overview and discussion, see here.
Open markten
Crime & Justice
POLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+4.5pt65%
- Yes-4.5pt35%
- Totaal volume
- € 347,5K
- 24u volume
- € 27,4K
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-2.0pt21%
- 2026+0.1pt5%
- Totaal volume
- € 497,4K
- 24u volume
- € 12,5K
POLYMARKETNothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Yes+2.0pt83.2%
- No-2.0pt16.8%
- Totaal volume
- € 676K
- 24u volume
- € 8,2K
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Totaal volume
- € 9,8 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 4,6K
KALSHIWill Trump be impeached and removed from office?
- No84%
- Yes-1.0pt16%
- Totaal volume
- € 577,2K
- 24u volume
- € 3,7K
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+1.5pt28%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 30+1.5pt7%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
- What will Brett Kavanaugh say during his Notre Dame Lecture?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
- Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
- Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026?
- Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?
- James Comey charges dropped by December 31?
- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Andrew Tate released from custody by which date?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 95% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Will Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: It doesn't need to be a formal charge of a crime, it could also be something like a sexual assault allegation.