Will Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030?
One-OffMisdaad en justitie3j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Nee 94.7%
Nee 94.7%Voorspellers
13
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 18 uur geleden
Verouderd21 nov 22, 15:40 UTC1 jan 30, 05:00 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will I be published in a major news outlet by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will an AI-related event dominate the mainstream news cycle for at least three consecutive days?
Manifold MarketsBy the end of 2027 will a deepfake of a famous person be reported as real by mainstream news organizations
Manifold MarketsWill the first mention of Manifold in mainstream news be positive?
Manifold MarketsWho will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?
PolymarketTrump out as President before 2027?
PolymarketRegels
It doesn't need to be a formal charge of a crime, it could also be something like a sexual assault allegation.
- The allegation must be specific, like "I was attacked on [date] at [place]", it can't be "I heard a rumor that Scott once did something that made someone uncomfortable".
- And the alleged behavior must actually be a felony if it were to be proven in court, it can't just be "a bad thing".
- I'll be broad with what counts as a "mainstream news outlet", it just can't be "a blog post from someone with 18 readers", or infowars.
- This is part of a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best.
- For an overview and discussion, see here.
