Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 77%
Voorspellers
26
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 2 uur geleden
Verouderd22 aug 23, 12:47 UTC2 aug 28, 06:59 UTC
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For every quarter, the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) publishes very detailed statistics on the cost of flights between a wide variety of US cities.
- They even inflation adjust historical prices to the current quarter!
- At the very bottom of their table, they have a row "National Average".
- Once the 2028 Q1 statistics are released, I will calculate the percentage increase in fare prices (((2023Q1AverageFare-2028Q1AverageFare)/2023Q1AverageFare)*100).
- This market will resolve YES if the inflation adjusted national average fare in 2028Q1 (2023Q1AverageFare) is more than 33 percent higher than the inflation adjusted national average fare in 2023Q1 (2023Q1AverageFare) (e.g. if the result of the above calculation is 33 or higher).
- Else, it will resolve no.