Will Iran strike US military base at least once in September?
MonthlyGeopolitiekMiddle EastHealth & Medicine22dManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 61.3%
Voorspellers
12
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 2 minuten geleden
5 sep 26, 04:38 UTC30 sep 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, between its creation on September 5, 2026, and September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, Iranian state military forces (including the regular military/Artesh or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps/IRGC) execute an attack that successfully strikes a U.S. military base or a military facility housing U.S. armed forces.
- For the purposes of this market, a "strike" requires a projectile, missile, or drone to physically impact, detonate within the perimeter of, or cause documented damage or casualties at the targeted U.S. military facility.
- Attacks that are fully intercepted, shot down, or land harmlessly outside the facility's perimeter without causing documented damage or casualties will resolve the market to NO.
- Any attacks that occurred prior to the market's creation (such as the attacks on September 1–3, 2026) are excluded and will not count toward a YES resolution.
- Sources of Truth: Resolution will be determined using official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), or consensus reports from major independent international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, Agence France-Presse).
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will Iran strike US military base at least once in September??
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 61% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will Iran strike US military base at least once in September? afgewikkeld?
- Will Iran strike US military base at least once in September? wordt naar verwachting op 30 september 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will Iran strike US military base at least once in September? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolution criteria