Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 75.2%
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91
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
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Bijgewerkt 1 uur geleden
Vertraagd13 mrt 26, 20:59 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketRegels
With the US and Israel launching a war on Iran and assassinating the Supreme Leader, will Iran become more authoritarian in 2026, or will this give way to a freer regime?
- If The Economist Democracy Index scores Iran lower for the year of 2026 than 2025, this market resolves YES.
- If it scores the same or higher, this market resolves NO.
- -- details below --
- Note that at the time of market creation, the 2025 The Economist Democracy Index has not yet been published, though it is expected to be published soon.
- To be clear, this market is comparing the index covering the state of Iran in 2025 and 2026, not the index published in 2025 and 2026.