Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 93.9%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 8 uur geleden
Verouderd21 apr 23, 08:00 UTC1 jan 00, 07:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will humans be an endangered species by 2600?
Manifold MarketsWill humans be an endangered species by 2200?
Manifold MarketsWill humans be an endangered species by 2300?
Manifold MarketsWill humans be an endangered species by 2400?
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PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRegels
Essentially 'will humans go extinct by 2100' but with a few survivors being allowed.
- To quantify this, National Geographic says:
- "A species is classified as endangered when its population has declined at least 70 percent and the cause of the decline is known.
- A species is also classified as endangered when its population has declined at least 50 percent and the cause of the decline is not known." so I will allow a 50% decrease to resolve this as "yes" and will otherwise resolve this as "no"