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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Vertraagd21 apr 23, 08:00 UTC1 jan 00, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will humans be an endangered species by 2600?
Manifold MarketsWill humans be an endangered species by 2200?
Manifold MarketsWill humans be an endangered species by 2300?
Manifold MarketsWill marine species threatened of extinction rise to 1700 in 2027's Starfish Barometer?
FutuurWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketRegels
Essentially 'will humans go extinct by 2100' but with a few survivors being allowed.
- To quantify this, National Geographic says:
- "A species is classified as endangered when its population has declined at least 70 percent and the cause of the decline is known.
- A species is also classified as endangered when its population has declined at least 50 percent and the cause of the decline is not known." so I will allow a 50% decrease to resolve this as "yes" and will otherwise resolve this as "no"
Open markten
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 226,3K
- 24u volume
- € 125,2K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 28,6 mln.
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 108,3K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Totaal volume
- € 1,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 5,2K
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
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- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
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- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will humans be an endangered species by 2100??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 94% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will humans be an endangered species by 2100? afgewikkeld?
- Will humans be an endangered species by 2100? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2100 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will humans be an endangered species by 2100? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Essentially 'will humans go extinct by 2100' but with a few survivors being allowed.