Will "Explosive AI-driven growth" side of bet proposed by Ben Moll win?
EconomieOne-OffAIMacro & Economy8jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 78.5%
Voorspellers
5
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 7 minuten geleden
28 aug 26, 12:26 UTC1 jan 35, 00:00 UTC
Trends
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ForecastExRegels
Ben Moll (@ben_moll) on X
- [link preview]Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if the "fast-growth" (Explosive AI-driven growth) side of the bet wins.
- It will resolve to NO if the "no-fast-growth" side (which Benjamin Moll is betting on) wins.
- According to the official bet terms, the fast-growth side wins if there is any quarter Q , up to and including 2033Q4, such that U.S. real GDP per capita in Q is at least 15% higher than the previous peak, defined as the highest quarterly real GDP per capita recorded in any quarter up to and including Q-4 (i.e., at least one year before Q).
- Otherwise, the no-fast-growth side wins.
Open markten
EconomyKALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes+1.0pt2%
- Totaal volume
- € 758K
- 24u volume
- € 18,7K
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Totaal volume
- € 3,1 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 15,3K
KALSHICPI in September
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above -0.4%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+11 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 200,6K
- 24u volume
- € 14,5K
KALSHIInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.2%+1.0pt99%
- Above 3.0%98%
- Above 3.1%-1.0pt97%
+18 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 321K
KALSHICore inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- Above 2.1%99%
- Above 2.2%98%
- Above 2.3%-1.0pt85%
+12 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 52,2K
- 24u volume
KALSHIPennsylvania annual-average manufacturing employment in 2026
- Above 545,000 jobs97%
- Above 550,000 jobs87%
- Above 555,000 jobs+6.0pt49%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 89,7K
- Recession in 2027?
- CPI in October
- Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Will the IMF declare a global recession before 2027?
- China Annual GDP Growth 2026
- US GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- US recession by end of 2026?
- More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
- CPI core in November 2026
- GDP growth in 2026
- Core inflation in November 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will "Explosive AI-driven growth" side of bet proposed by Ben Moll win??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 79% per 21 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will "Explosive AI-driven growth" side of bet proposed by Ben Moll win? afgewikkeld?
- Will "Explosive AI-driven growth" side of bet proposed by Ben Moll win? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2035 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will "Explosive AI-driven growth" side of bet proposed by Ben Moll win? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Ben Moll (@ben_moll) on X