KalshiBeschikbaarheid controlerenKYC vereist2% kostenGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige impliciete kans
Below 15% 72.7%Marge-gecorrigeerd: de ruwe noteringen telden op tot boven 100% en zijn genormaliseerd.
Marktkwaliteit
28 / 100
Lage kwaliteit24u volume
—
Liquiditeit
€ 22,8
Lage liquiditeitBied / Laat
20.0% / 29.0%
Spread
9.0 pt
Brede spreadMarktdata
Bijgewerkt 3 minuten geleden
28 aug 26, 22:00 UTC26 jan 34, 13:29 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will "Explosive AI-driven growth" side of bet proposed by Ben Moll win?
Manifold MarketsCPI in September
KalshiInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
KalshiCore inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
KalshiUS economic state at the end of 2026?
PolymarketWill China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?
Manifold MarketsRegels
If the highest percentage increase in U.S. real GDP per capita over its previous peak for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 is at least
Afwikkeling via:Bureau of Economic Analysis
- 15%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market is based on the public challenge agreed upon in August 2026 between the following sides:
- MacAskill side (fast growth): William MacAskill, Samuel Albanie and Tom Cohen Moll side (no fast growth): Benjamin Moll and Andrew Ho
- GROWTH CONDITION
- The MacAskill side wins if, for any quarter from Q3 2026 through Q4 2033, U.S. real GDP per capita is at least 15% above the previous peak.
Open markten
InflationPOLYMARKETHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- 2 (50 bps)-0.5pt59.8%
- 3 (75 bps)+1.2pt25.5%
- 1 (25 bps)-2.0pt13.7%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 493,3K
- 24u volume
- € 25,3K
KALSHICPI in September
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above -0.4%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+11 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 200,6K
- 24u volume
- € 14,5K
KALSHIInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.2%+1.0pt99%
- Above 3.0%98%
- Above 3.1%-1.0pt97%
+18 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 321K
KALSHICore inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- Above 2.1%99%
- Above 2.2%98%
- Above 2.3%-1.0pt85%
+12 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 52,2K
- 24u volume
POLYMARKETAnother Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes-1.0pt86%
- No+1.0pt14%
- Totaal volume
- € 70,9K
- 24u volume
- € 9,6K
KALSHICPI in October
- Above -0.1%+3.0pt93%
- Above 0.0%-6.0pt85%
- Above 0.1%+7.0pt83%
+9 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 37,9K
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- CPI core in November 2026
- Core inflation in November 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- September Inflation US - Annual
- September Inflation US - Monthly
- September Inflation China - Annual
- Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY)
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- China Annual Inflation 2026
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor MacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win??
- Kalshi prijst Below 15% op 73% per 21 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt MacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win? afgewikkeld?
- MacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win? wordt naar verwachting op 26 januari 2034 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt MacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win? afgewikkeld?
- Kalshi wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: If the highest percentage increase in U.S. real GDP per capita over its previous peak for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 is at least