Will China commission a fourth conventional aircraft carrier before 2030?
GeopolitiekOne-OffRuimtevaartChina3jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 64.6%
Voorspellers
4
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 15 uur geleden
Verouderd1 jan 26, 06:30 UTC31 dec 29, 15:59 UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRegels
Resolution Criteria
- China currently operates three active aircraft carriers: the Liaoning, Shandong, and Fujian.
- This market resolves YES if China officially commissions a fourth conventional aircraft carrier before January 1, 2030.
- "Commissioned" means the carrier is formally accepted into service by the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) in an official ceremony.
- Resolution will be verified through official Chinese government announcements, state media (Xinhua, CCTV), or credible international defense reporting (Pentagon reports, USNI, Jane's Defense Weekly).
- Note: The Type 004 will be much larger and also likely the first Chinese surface warship to feature nuclear marine propulsion, so it would not count as a "conventional" carrier for this market.
