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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 7 minuten geleden
13 sep 26, 03:08 UTC31 dec 30, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)
Manifold MarketsWill the US and/or China ban at least two open-source AI models before 2027?
Manifold MarketsTop Open Source AI this week
KalshiUS government bans an open source AI model in 2026?
PolymarketWill open-source AI win? (through 2028)
Manifold MarketsWill an open-source AI model top the LMSYS Leaderboard at the end of 2026?
FutuurRegels
Will China either significantly de facto or de jure ban open source AI before the United States of America.
- A de facto ban is decided by what is, by reasonable likelihood causally linked to legislation, a significant lagging of the respective country's open frontier relative to it's prior trend is considered a "ban".
Open markten
AIPOLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-8.5pt77%
- December 15,-22.5pt60%
- November 30,-27.0pt51%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 3,1 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 199,2K
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+3.0pt90%
- Before Mar 1, 202786%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+2.0pt86%
+9 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,9 mln.
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt68.3%
- ChatGPT+1.5pt14.4%
- Gemini+1.9pt9.6%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 10 mln.
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 23.6%+8.0pt99%
- Above 21.7%99%
- Above 22.7%99%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 153,1K
- 24u volume
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 4.5%+9.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 5.6%+45.0pt91%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 171K
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.55%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.05%99%
- Above 2.25%99%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 199,4K
- 24u volume
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic lab leak by which date?
- Top Text to Speech AI this week
- Top Text to Image AI this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- Next Claude Opus released on?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will China ban Open Source AI before the United States?
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 72% per 19 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will China ban Open Source AI before the United States afgewikkeld?
- Will China ban Open Source AI before the United States wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will China ban Open Source AI before the United States afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Will China either significantly de facto or de jure ban open source AI before the United States of America.