Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 53.7%
Voorspellers
20
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 18 uur geleden
Verouderd8 apr 25, 19:47 UTC31 dec 30, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Top Open Source AI this week
KalshiWill open-source AI win? (through 2028)
Manifold MarketsWill it take <=12 months for open-source AI forecasting to go from consistently worse than humans to broadly superhuman?
Manifold MarketsWill the US and/or China ban at least two open-source AI models before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill an open-source AI model top the LMSYS Leaderboard at the end of 2026?
FutuurUS government bans an open source AI model in 2026?
PolymarketRegels
Prediction #4 from: My Takeaways From AI 2027 - by Scott Alexander
Open markten
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 135,2K
- 24u volume
- € 102,7K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 325K
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)?
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 54% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4) afgewikkeld?
- Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4) wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4) afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Prediction #4 from: My Takeaways From AI 2027 - by Scott Alexander