Will "Anthropic: "Statement from Dario Amodei on ou..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

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Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will "Anthropic: "Statement from Dario Amodei on ou..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??

Manifold Markets prijst No op 86% per 25 oktober 2026.

Wanneer wordt Will "Anthropic: "Statement from Dario Amodei on ou..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? afgewikkeld?

Will "Anthropic: "Statement from Dario Amodei on ou..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? wordt naar verwachting op 1 februari 2028 afgewikkeld.

Hoe wordt Will "Anthropic: "Statement from Dario Amodei on ou..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? afgewikkeld?

Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.

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POLYMARKET

US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?

• October 22+0.1pt100%
• October 24-0.7pt99%
• October 2890%

+17 extra uitkomsten

Totaal volume

€ 23,6 mln.

24u volume

€ 1,3 mln.

POLYMARKET

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?

• October 24+0.1pt100%
• October 27+1.5pt93%
• October 31+1.0pt88%

+28 extra uitkomsten

POLYMARKET

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

• No+0.4pt98%
• Yes-0.4pt2%

Totaal volume

€ 40,1 mln.

24u volume

€ 219K

POLYMARKET

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

• No88.1%
• Yes11.9%

Totaal volume

€ 13,9 mln.

24u volume

€ 108,3K

POLYMARKET

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

• No-0.5pt80.2%
• Yes+0.5pt19.8%

Totaal volume

€ 67,2 mln.

24u volume

€ 103,7K

POLYMARKET

US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?

• March 31-2.0pt56%
• December 31-0.2pt36%
• November 3024%

+20 extra uitkomsten

• NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
• Will Russia target Kyiv on?
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
• US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
• US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
• US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
• Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)