Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 83%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 17 uur geleden
Verouderd19 sep 23, 15:06 UTC2 jan 28, 07:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will an F-35 be captured or in possession of an adversary any time through 2030
Manifold MarketsWill KIA-led forces have captured Katha by September 30, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill KIA-led forces have captured Bhamo by September 30, 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketRegels
It should be mostly undamaged.
- Either captured, or taken after forced landing, or similar.
- Something like the Hainan incident would count. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hainan_Island_incident
- Even if the pilot has a chance to manually destroy sensitive aspects of the plane before being taken, as long as the exterior is mostly intact it would count.
- Even a crash which the pilot walks away from would likely result in a plane in good enough condition to count.
Open markten
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 22,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 581,3K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Totaal volume
- € 55,9 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 96,8K
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will an F-35 be captured or in possession of an adversary any time through 2027?
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 83% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will an F-35 be captured or in possession of an adversary any time through 2027 afgewikkeld?
- Will an F-35 be captured or in possession of an adversary any time through 2027 wordt naar verwachting op 2 januari 2028 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will an F-35 be captured or in possession of an adversary any time through 2027 afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: It should be mostly undamaged.