Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 69.9%
Voorspellers
3
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 19 uur geleden
Verouderd15 mei 26, 17:35 UTC31 dec 39, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich Scottish Spaceport will see the first successful orbital launch?
Manifold MarketsWho will conduct the last orbital launch of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will conduct the first orbital launch of 2027?
Manifold MarketsNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketNext Prime Minister of Spain?
PolymarketRegels
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that a European-designed and/or European-operated launch vehicle reaches orbit before January 1st 2040, with every propulsive stage used on that flight having previously flown on an earlier spaceflight.
- “European” means the vehicle is primarily developed or operated by an organisation headquartered in Europe, including ESA member states, the UK, EU countries, or European commercial launch companies.
- A flight counts even if the stages are not recovered again afterward, as long as all stages used to reach orbit had already flown before.
- Test flights count if they reach orbit.
- Suborbital flights do not count.
- Resolves NO if no such flight has occurred before January 1st 2040.