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Verouderd25 apr 23, 03:04 UTC31 dec 29, 14:00 UTC
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Will SpaceX's Starship have 40 successful launches before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich months of 2026 will there be a Starship–Superheavy launch?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX attempt to deploy Starlink satellites in the first fully-orbital Starship–SuperHeavy flight?
Manifold MarketsHow many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
PolymarketHow many SpaceX Starship launches will reach space in 2026?
KalshiHow many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
LimitlessRegels
I'm considering the first IFT "Not Successful", in that it didn't insert Starship into a near-orbital trajectory.
- Even though personally I think it was a successful data gathering flight.
- The guiding principle for success is something like "Did this flight prove to customers their payload will go where they want it to go?".
- Essentially, will SpaceX make 500 launches that a customer would consider proves satisfactory reliability and safety of the system by Jan 1st 2030.
- Clarified criteria:
- A "successful launch" means any launch in which:
Open markten
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1,3 mln.
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,1 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 802,6K
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,547.84 target
- Yes60%
- No40%
- Totaal volume
- € 736,5K
- 24u volume
- € 585,6K
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.4%
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- 160-179-4.0pt19.1%
+23 extra uitkomsten
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- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
- 86° to 87°-12.0pt25%
+3 extra uitkomsten
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Zal SpaceX's Starship Superheavy-draagraket 500 totale succesvolle lanceringen bereiken vóór 1 januari 2030??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 94% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Zal SpaceX's Starship Superheavy-draagraket 500 totale succesvolle lanceringen bereiken vóór 1 januari 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Zal SpaceX's Starship Superheavy-draagraket 500 totale succesvolle lanceringen bereiken vóór 1 januari 2030? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2029 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Zal SpaceX's Starship Superheavy-draagraket 500 totale succesvolle lanceringen bereiken vóór 1 januari 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: I'm considering the first IFT "Not Successful", in that it didn't insert Starship into a near-orbital trajectory.