Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 26 okt 2026, 06:50 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 99%
Voorspellers
33
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 3 uur geleden
Verouderd30 dec 23, 03:59 UTC3 jan 27, 06:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
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LimitlessWill SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?
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Manifold MarketsRegels
See also: @/Alexf3a5/will-spacexs-starship-superheavy-la
- I will use the same criteria as that market: has a payload been delivered in a way that a customer would be happy with?
- Update 2025-07-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Based on the linked market's criteria, the creator has provided the following clarifications:
- For test flights with no payload, a launch is successful if it reaches its target trajectory or destination, disregarding later failures related to vehicle recovery.
- Under these terms, Starship Flight 3 is considered a success.
- The current count of successful launches is 4.